Hurricane Polo hits Baja California Sur as Category 3 with 125 mph winds

Hurricane Polo weakened to a Category 3 storm and was expected to make landfall on the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur on Monday night, forecasters said on 27 September. As of 11 a.m. EDT on Sunday, the hurricane sat about 200 miles off the Baja California coast, moving north-northwest at 12 mph with sustained winds of 125 mph, according to the US National Hurricane Center.straitstimes.com

The storm threatens a popular tourist destination with sustained winds of 60 to 80 mph at landfall and heavy rain. Heavy rain, high surf and strong winds had already prompted evacuations, port closures and school cancellations along Mexico's Pacific coast. In the resort city of San Jose del Cabo, authorities restricted access to beaches as the storm churned up large waves and dangerous surf.cbsnews.com+1

Why the storm matters now

A hurricane warning was in effect for a stretch of northwestern Mexico from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe in Baja California, the National Hurricane Center said. Hurricane-force winds extended outward up to 40 mph from the centre of the storm, while tropical-storm-force winds extended outward up to 160 mph. A hurricane watch and tropical storm warning were also in place for the west coast of Baja California Sur from Punta Eugenia to Punta Abreojos.

Polo's core on Sunday was about 280 miles west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas at the tip of the Baja California peninsula, heading north-northwest at 12 mph. By Monday, Polo was forecast to turn northeast and make landfall in Baja California Sur, then move across northwestern mainland Mexico by Tuesday. The State Department said the storm was expected to weaken to a Category 1 storm before landfall and continue into southern Sonora.

The National Hurricane Center noted that despite weakening, Polo was still expected to be a "strong hurricane" when it reached Baja California Sur. Private forecaster AccuWeather said Polo was expected to gradually weaken before making landfall as a Category 1 hurricane, but could still topple trees and power lines and inflict structural damage.

How Polo intensified so fast

Polo underwent what is called extreme rapid intensification, in which a storm's wind speeds increase by 58 mph or more over 24 hours, between Sept. 21 and Sept. 22. Its winds rose from 45 mph on the morning of Sept. 21 to 150 mph at around the same time the following day. The hurricane center described the storm's transformation as "truly remarkable."

Polo's maximum sustained winds climbed as high as 180 mph at one point, far exceeding the 157 mph threshold for Category 5, the strongest on the hurricane scale. By Saturday morning, maximum sustained winds had lowered to near 160 miles per hour, with some higher gusts. Polo's central pressure of about 892 millibars made it the second-strongest hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific, behind 2015's Hurricane Patricia. Its wind speeds tied 2009's Hurricane Rick as the third-strongest on record for the region.

Unusually strong El Niño conditions this year increased tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific, with warmer waters, moist air and less wind shear enabling storm formation. Polo was forecast to dump 4 to 8 inches (10 to 20 cm) of rain across Baja California, raising the risk of life-threatening flooding and mudslides, before crossing the Gulf of California into Sonora and Chihuahua. The hurricane center said isolated areas could see up to 10 inches.

El Niño raises the rainfall risk

Mexican leaders ordered evacuations, opened shelters and deployed military troops to areas that could be affected. Classes were suspended at schools across Acapulco, along the coast of Guerrero, its municipal government announced, and shelters across the state remained open. Officials said they were coordinating with local and national authorities to prepare for additional impacts of the hurricane.

Polo was not expected to make a direct hit on Southern California, but its massive wave energy was forecast to surge north, with the most significant impacts expected for Monday and Tuesday. Swells were expected to begin arriving late Sunday, while high tides could reach around 7 feet, raising flooding threats along beaches, walkways and low-lying coastal areas.

What Southern California faces

The National Weather Service warned Los Angeles and Ventura counties could see four to seven-foot surf, along with strong rip currents, beach erosion and possible coastal flooding as the large swell arrived during high tide. Areas of particular concern included the Long Beach Peninsula, Belmont Shore, Malibu and Avalon. NOAA's Dr. Ariel Cohen told KTLA the main concern was significant wave energy and very dangerous surf.

Wildlife officials relocated two newly discovered olive ridley sea turtle nests from Seal Beach and Huntington Beach to the Aquarium of the Pacific in Long Beach, citing the combination of high tides and dangerous surf. The coastline was still recovering from Hurricane Marie earlier this month, which caused flooding, damaged seawalls and significant beach erosion in Long Beach, Malibu and other coastal communities.