Cook Political Report shifts 15 House races toward Democrats

The Cook Political Report shifted 15 House races toward Democrats on Friday and said it was almost impossible for Republicans to retain control of the House of Representatives. The nonpartisan ratings group forecast Democrats would gain between five and 15 seats in November's midterm elections, enough to reach a 220-to-230 seat majority.nny360.com+1

The shift matters because all 15 districts moved in the same direction, toward Democrats, and because the flagged races sit in places President Donald Trump once carried by big numbers. Cook projects that the flagging popularity of Republicans nationwide will give Democrats the opportunity to pick up enough seats to take control of the House next year.kcby.com

What the ratings shift means

Cook's analysis for the 15 races found Republicans lost ground in each district, broadly driven by indications that President Trump is unpopular and is dragging down-ballball Republicans' popularity as well. The change comes with 39 days to go until the midterm elections, and the party currently down just three seats in the chamber.

Cook rates 22 House seats as toss-ups, 16 of them controlled by Republicans. Cook managing editor Carrie Dann said that while Republicans could win a majority of the 22 toss-up races on paper, in reality it is all but impossible, and that the five-to-15 range could be revised upward in Democrats' favour.

Where the numbers came from

Rice University political scientist Mark Jones called a Democratic House takeover virtually a foregone conclusion and said Democrats are more likely to end up with 230 to 240 seats rather than Cook's very conservative projection. Jones gave Democrats a two-in-three likelihood of taking the Senate, while noting the Senate outcome is more unpredictable.

Christian Grose, director of the USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab, said Republicans enter the midterms with a structural advantage from mid-decade redistricting, but that the electoral environment favours Democrats and is probably the more powerful factor. The sitting president's party has lost House seats in eight of 10 midterms going back 40 years.

Republicans still hold a massive fundraising edge, and the question Cook is watching is whether Republican advertising can move the needle. Dann said many lean races show the Democrat and Republican essentially tied at about 46%, leaving lots of undecided voters in very red districts that Republicans hope to win back with millions of dollars of ads.

What Republicans still have

If those numbers do not move over the next couple of weeks, Dann said, it would show Republicans may have hit a ceiling with their message that money cannot overcome. Trump's MAGA Inc political action committee has mostly failed to distribute its cash, even as the party sits on a large fundraising advantage.

In Texas's 15th District, Mark Jones said incumbent Republican Representative Monica De La Cruz is in a neck-and-neck race with Democrat Bobby Pulido, despite Trump winning the since-redrawn district by 18 points two years ago. Grose said his lab's Swingometer shows how a uniform national shift could affect House control.

The Senate remains a separate contest. Cook forecasts Democrats picking up between one and five Senate seats, with control on a knife's edge likely decided by seven toss-up races. Democrats must defend Michigan and flip four Republican-held seats, while North Carolina is expected to flip and Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio and Texas remain in play. Cook's next rating changes and the movement in Republican advertising spending over the coming weeks will determine whether the five-to-15 seat range holds or is revised, with the midterm elections as the next fixed date in the calendar.